The epidemic is getting worse, Southeast Asia has suffered a nightmare of cutting off a confession! The manufacturing industry has fallen into the "five shortcomings" dilemma!

Delta mutant strains are ravaging Southeast Asia. The local epidemic situation has intensified since July. The epidemic situation in many countries has reached a critical point. This has put the manufacturing industry in the region in trouble and disrupted commodities such as rubber gloves, semiconductors and sports utility vehicles. Global supply threatens regional economic recovery.

At present, Southeast Asian manufacturers are generally facing the "five shortfalls" of "lack of materials, lack of cabinets, lack of cores, lack of labor, and lack of vaccines". The chaos in the Asian market may distort the global supply chain. According to United Nations estimates, about 42% of global exports come from Asia.

Malaysia

The latest wave of outbreaks in Malaysia started in July. Since then, new confirmed cases and new deaths have increased exponentially. Although they began to lock down the city on June 1, it did not play an effective role. The lockdown is currently being extended indefinitely. The Malaysian government plans to gradually restart production activities when the number of cases drops to below 4,000 per day, but it still appears to be nowhere in sight.

Vietnam

The outbreak in Vietnam has reached the most critical state. It has been determined that the capital Hanoi will be extended to August 22, while Ho Chi Minh City will continue to maintain social isolation until September 15.

Indonesia

As the world's fourth most populous country, Indonesia has previously replaced India as the center of the new crown epidemic in Asia. On August 4, the number of deaths from the new coronavirus in Indonesia exceeded 100,000, making it the second Asian country to have a cumulative death toll of more than 100,000 after India.

Due to Indonesia's repeated extension of anti-epidemic measures and the failure to issue most of the economic stimulus aid, tens of millions of small companies that are the backbone of the Indonesian economy are facing the risk of bankruptcy. According to data from the Indonesian Association of Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises, the epidemic has led to the closure of more than 30 million small, medium and micro enterprises, most of which are from agriculture, fisheries and trade.

Some domestic associations in Indonesia are already calling for anti-dumping of Chinese products. For example, Silmy Karim, president of the Indonesian Steel Producers Association, said on August 13 that China's imports of steel flood the Indonesian market, and steel has become Indonesia's second largest import product, and most of it is imported from China.

The Indonesian Steel Producers Association has requested the Indonesian central government to implement anti-dumping measures against Chinese imports of steel including hot rolled steel, steel plate, cold rolled steel, wire rod, bar, profile and coated steel, but the Indonesian government has not yet agreed.

In addition, Indonesia's new cross-border e-commerce policy implemented on August 1 has also had a significant impact on Chinese exporters. Starting from August 1, the Indonesian government requires all inbound e-commerce packages to contain the recipient’s personal or corporate identity authentication information (NPWP or NIK/KTP/passport number). This new policy applies to all B2B, B2C and C2C express parcels, with the only exception being express documents.

SHEIN, the largest cross-border fast fashion giant surpassing ZARA, ceased operations in Indonesia on July 29.

Philippines

The Philippines is the second country in Southeast Asia to have a severe outbreak after Indonesia. At present, the delta mutant strain has almost spread throughout the Philippines. In order to curb its spread, the capital of the Philippines, Manila, has re-entered the lockdown on August 6. The Metropolitan Manila with a population of more than 13 million is full of checkpoints to ensure that only people are engaged in necessary work. Able to take to the streets.

According to the epidemic prevention guidelines, only enterprises and workers in the necessary livelihood industries in the blocked area can operate and work normally, only one family member can go out to buy food and necessities in each family, and other people must stay at home. Many residents of Metro Manila will face unemployment during the lockdown. Many people complain that they do not have enough financial resources to support their living needs in the next two weeks.

Thailand

In early August, Thailand expanded the highest-level epidemic control area from 13 provinces including Bangkok to 29. The prevention and control measures such as the "city closure" and curfew in the epidemic control area at the level of the epidemic will last until August 31.

In terms of work arrangements, it is required to continue to work from home, and companies with more than 50 employees must prepare internal isolation sites, and companies with more than 100 employees implement closed management.

The Thai baht has become the worst-performing currency in emerging Asian markets this year, casting a shadow over the purchases of Thai importers. The Thai baht has depreciated by 11% so far this year. The Bank of Thailand has reminded private companies to manage foreign exchange risks, especially those engaged in import and export trade.

The depreciation of the Thai baht is largely due to the economic recession caused by the new crown epidemic. The epidemic has severely impacted the Thai economy, which is highly dependent on the tourism industry. The decrease in tourists also means that the demand for the Thai baht is reduced.

In the latest news, the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand will sign a mini free trade agreement with my country’s Hainan Province on the 20th of this month. The two sides will strengthen cooperation in trade and investment between SMEs.

"Dangers" and "opportunities" for Chinese companies

The latest data report released by the financial information company IHS Markit shows that the purchasing managers index (PMI) of the ASEAN countries’ manufacturing industry fell from 49 in June to 44.6 in July, which is the second consecutive month below the Kurong line, and It is a 13-month low.

Among the seven ASEAN countries covered by the report, five countries have a manufacturing index below 50, namely Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand. According to the report, manufacturing demand in ASEAN countries further declined in July, with factory output and new orders falling for the second consecutive month, the highest level since May 2020.